• Range trading amid fragile risk sentiment still.

    Yesterday's US NFP data helped risk sentiment a little but the good vibes were shortlived as US coronavirus case rose bt record levels for the third day in a row.

    FX pairs had a ranging day overall amid those large options flows and variable risk, and the theme continues in Europe so far. US on hols today for Indpendence Day celebrations.

    GBPUSD failed above 1.2500 a couple of times but support now coming in at 1.2435 and we are back above 1.2460 as I type.EURGBP tested 0.9000 a couple of times but hasn't broken. Equally it hasn't broken back up through 0.9030 either.GBPJPY capped at 134.75 and now testing 133.80 on the retreat amid softer risk sentiment.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to continue seeing some dip demand but cross-flows and Brexit will produce a mixed bag moving forward.

    USDJPY has been tightly bound again between 107.30-60 amid the variable USD and risk sentiment. EURJPY found a cap at 121.50 and has retreated to 120.70 as I type amid the risk-off plays. EURUSD duly found those 1.1300 offers and large expiries a step too far and failed to hold the early gains above there then retreated back through 1.1250 after expiry time to now post lows of 1.1224. USDCHF held 0.9420 with the SNB ever vigilant in the dips and has rallied to 0.9470 as EURUSD retreats but tempered by some EURCHF supply. USDCHF support now at 0.9450 and seems like a good line developing there.

    AUDUSD duly capped at 0.6950 but held 0.6900 amid those lose large options rolling off at both ends but still looks underpinned albeit ranging. USDCAD failed above 1.3620 and now down to 1.3560 amid the variable oil price and risk sentiment.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget to contact me if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Enjoy your week-end.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.35 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2443

    EURUSD 1.1231

    EURGBP 0.9025

    GBPEUR 1.1079

    GBPAUD 1.7945

    GBPCAD 1.6876

    GBPJPY 133.80

    GBPZAR 21.1338

    GBPHKD 9.6602

    USDJPY 107.50

    USDZAR 16.9544

    EURJPY 120.74

    EURCHF 1.0632

    EURHKD 8.7194

    AUDUSD 0.6933

    USDCAD 1.3564

    USDCHF 0.9465

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  • Perky Pound amid firmer risk sentiment

    Seems like the happy-clappy brigade are in charge again for the moment as the woes of the world disappear and the glass is half full again. I don't agree but hey, markets and algos are what they are.

    Patience always a virtue in forex. Today's US NFP data will be keenly awaited, a day early due to the US Independence Day holiday tomorrow. I don't do predictions as you know so just be poised with entry/exit levels and orders and let the algos do the work so you can jump in as suits.

    GBPUSD is enjoying a good run higher amid the risk-on sentiment helped by GBPJPY demand and EURGBP selling now that month-end demand is out of the way. The pair found a good hold around 1.2380 then again at 1.2460 and now posting 1.2508 as I type. I warned yesterday not to get too greedy and I've been warning also about dip demand so I'm happy to sit on the sidelines for the moment. EURGBP has continued its retreat and tested 0.9000 before finding some support as EURUSD popped higher amid some general USD weakness. GBPJPY found a base at 133.00 and has enjoyed the risk-on rally to break 134.00 as USDJPY finds dip demand on the general Yen selling and GBP enjoys the joy ride.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to continue seeing some dip demand but cross-flows and Brexit will produce a mixed bag moving forward.

    USDJPY has been tightly bound between 107.30-60 with the general USD supply tempering the JPY selling while EURJPY found a base at 120.25 and then 120.80 post to 121.27 as I type amid the risk-on plays.

    EURUSD duly found support into 1.1185 again before breaking higher and holding above the 1.2240-50 pivot area to now test 1.1300 offers. Lots of option expiries again today to help keep range contained.USDCHF capped at 0.9500 and fell as EURUSD rallied but holding 0.9420 for the moment with the SNB ever vigilant in the dips to keep a bid under EURCHF.

    AUDUSD duly held 0.6880-85 where we had those large option expiries yesterday and has rallied to test 0.6950 but fell back to look at 0.6900 where we have even larger expiries today as per yesterday's tweet. USDCAD has found a base at 1.3550 again but failing above 1.3600 amid the firmer oil price and risk sentiment with CADJPY demand playing out.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget to take advantage of my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. .

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.50 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2500

    EURUSD 1.1277

    EURGBP 0.9021

    GBPEUR 1.1087

    GBPAUD 1.8038

    GBPCAD 1.6983

    GBPJPY 134.33

    GBPZAR 21.1594

    GBPHKD 9.6913

    USDJPY 107.45

    USDZAR 16.9023

    EURJPY 121.18

    EURCHF 1.0651

    EURHKD 8.7411

    AUDUSD 0.6930

    USDCAD 1.3584

    USDCHF 0.9444

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  • A new month but same uncertainty.

    Lots of mixed month/quarter-end flows yesterday as I warned but we didn't get the JPY demand that was reported to be a feature. Perhaps the late-month retreat in equities had an impact in the end even though they finished higher on the final day producing some risk-on sentiment to add to the mix.

    GBPUSD held 1.2250 again and made steady gains into the 4pm London fix and more after helped by the GBPJPY risk-on demand but failed around 1.2400 where I warned yesterday we had larger offers and where we just happen to have GBP510m expiries today and re-sells have duly been placed. EURGBP duly retreated and now testing 0.9050 (GBPEUR up to 1.1040) as month-end demand diminished. I did warn yesterday that "we may have seen most of the rally" and so it proved with GBP generally getting a lift across the board too. My sells previously into 0.9150 and 0.9175 proving prudent. GBPJPY held 132.00 yet again and enjoyed the month-end/risk-on rally to test 134.00 before retreating only to hold 133.00 amid variable risk in Asia/early Europe.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I expect to continue seeing some dip demand but cross-flows and Brexit will produce a mixed bag still.

    USDJPY has seen a round trip from 107.55 to 108.16 and back again amid all the month-end mayhem and

    EURJPY has had a round trip of its own from 120.60 to 121.50 and back on the firmer risk sentiment then reality check as USDJPY failed above 108.00.

    EURUSD duly found support into 1.1185 where I warned we had those large option expiries and was contained on the top side by the equally large expiries between 1.1240-50 before breaking higher into the 4pm fix helped by the EURJPY demand but tempered by the EURGBP supply and re-sells duly placed. Support found again around 1.1220 so far.USDCHF capped at 0.9530 and fell as EURUSD rallied but holding 0.9440 still with the SNB ever vigilant in the dips.

    AUDUSD based ar 0.6840 yet again and has needed little encouragement to enjoy a decent risk-on/month -end rally to break 0.6900 and post 0.6917 as I type with large demand building at 0.6880.USDCAD has found a latest base into 1.3550 after a solid retreat from 1.3700 again amid the month-end flows and firmer oil price which saw 90% gains in the latest Quarter.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget to take advantage of my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. .

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.34BST

    GBPUSD 1.2384

    EURUSD 1.1228

    EURGBP 0.9065

    GBPEUR 1.1030

    GBPAUD 1.7924

    GBPCAD 1.6787

    GBPJPY 133.30

    GBPZAR 21.3588

    GBPHKD 9.6013

    USDJPY 107.64

    USDZAR 17.2305

    EURJPY 120.87

    EURCHF 1.0636

    EURHKD 8.7047

    AUDUSD 0.6908

    USDCAD 1.3554

    USDCHF 0.9473

    Read more...

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  • Another month closes but it's not over just yet

    We've seen some USD demand but it's all still very mixed out there. China PMIs were better than expected but there's been reports of another virus developing out there too. They've also threatened retaliation on the US for them suspending preferential treatment of Hong Kong. All in all risk sentiment remains fragile but it's mostly about natural flows today.

    BOE economist Haldane, the dissenter to the increase in QE last time, will be speaking at 10.00 GMT and Fed head Powell testifies at 16.30 GMT. Also need to keep vigilant into the 15.00 GMT London fix for the final month and quarter-end flows. Latest info I have suggests it's going to be very mixed now with variable USD supply and demand and, as I mentioned previously, we could see some EUR supply and JPY demand. Strong performance of EZ assets combined with weak performance of Japanese assets produces a EURJPY sell-signal. Plenty of EURUSD option expiry interest too in the mix.

    GBPUSD fell again yesterday helped by GBPJPY supply and EURGBP demand but found support at 1.2250 but equally finding sellers on the bounce into 1.2320. Rinse and repeat still.EURGBP continued its march higher to test 0.9175 as month-end demand kicked in and pips duly taken into 0.9150 and 0.9175 as per my tweets. I remain a dip buyer overall but think we may have seen most of the month-end rally.GBPJPY held 132.00 but failed above 132.60 on the bounce this time before retreating back from where it came only to bounce again as I type.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to see some dip demand but cross-flows and Brexit will continue to produce a mixed bag.

    USDJPY capped above 107.80 but has held 107.50 so far while EURJPY broke 120.00 but held 119.80 on Friday but since failing above 120.60 on the bounce atm.EURUSD had a decent rally helped by the EURGBP demand but failed above 1.1280 and re-sells duly placed. Support found again into 1.1200 and some pips banked but staying core short. Large option expiries in the mix today along with month/quarter-end flows. USDCHF held 0.9440 on the latest retreat and rallied as EURUSD fell into 1.1200 but failing above 0.9520 as EURCHF retreats from 1.0700 after its own decent rally. Expect the SNB to be ever vigilant in the dips.

    AUDUSD based ar 0.6840 again but equally failing above 0.6880 again and since back down to post 0.6845. Rinse and repeat for the moment.USDCAD has found a latest base into 1.3650 where I noted bids building yesterday but equally still can't hold above above 1.3700 amid the variable risk/oil price/month-end combo.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget to take advantage of my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.43 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2281

    EURUSD 1.1210

    EURGBP 0.9131

    GBPEUR 1.0950

    GBPAUD 1.7912

    GBPCAD 1.6795

    GBPJPY 132.29

    GBPZAR 21.2602

    GBPHKD 9.5215

    USDJPY 107.71

    USDZAR 17.3138

    EURJPY 120.81

    EURCHF 1.0681

    EURHKD 8.6954

    AUDUSD 0.6856

    USDCAD 1.3675

    USDCHF 0.9523

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Fragile risk still prevailing

    A new week is underway with month and quarter end in the mix too and we're seeing some USD supply amid softer risk sentiment following on from Friday's moves and news of increasing COVID-19 cases in the US,China and elsewhere.

    All still very mixed out there though. BOE Governor Baily speaking at 09.30 GMT but not expected to produce anything to bother the algos. We'll stay poised though.

    GBPUSD fell heavily on Friday helped by GBPJPY supply and EURGBP demand but found support below 1.2320 but equally finding sellers on the bounce above 1.2380.EURGBP initially failed above 0.9100 on Friday but has held 0.9080 as month-end demand continues to kick in and now up to 0.9121 (GBPEUR down to 1.0961) again.GBPJPY retreated from 132.80 on Friday's softer risk but has held 132.00 to post 132.70 before retreating again this morning.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to see some dip demand though as month-end approaches but cross-flows will produce a mixed bag.

    USDJPY capped above 107.30 again and now lower at 107.14 on the softer risk/softer USD combo. EURJPY broke 120.00 but held 119.80 on Friday but since failing above 120.60 on the bounce atm.Ranging tightly still as are core pairs. EURUSD found support around 1.1200 again on the back of those large option expiries and softer USD tones and I hope the steer helped as we now post 1.1267 on the rally.

    USDCHF failed at 0.9500 but has held 0.9460 on the retreat to test 0.9480 as EURCHF holds 1.0620 with the SNB ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD has based ar 0.6840 after a softer risk retreat on Friday but equally failing at 0.6900 and since back down to post 0.6867 as I type. USDCAD has found a base into 1.3630 again but equally can't hold above above 1.3700 amid the variable risk/oil price/month-end combo.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.45 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2357

    EURUSD 1.1245

    EURGBP 0.9097

    GBPEUR 1.0990

    GBPAUD 1.7972

    GBPCAD 1.6885

    GBPJPY 132.50

    GBPZAR 21.3003

    GBPHKD 9.5804

    USDJPY 107.18

    USDZAR 17.2592

    EURJPY 120.52

    EURCHF 1.0653

    EURHKD 8.7174

    AUDUSD 0.6877

    USDCAD 1.3663

    USDCHF 0.9474

    Read more...

    0 comments

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