• Pound lower after latest Brexit vote creates more uncertainty

    UK PM Johnson last night got his Withdrawal Agreement technically approved further to an amendment debate but it was a resounding no to that 3-day legislation period with a view to still leaving on the 31 Oct and the Pound has taken another knock on the can kicking. With the Bill now in pause/inert mode there's growing speculation of a General Election before Xmas with the EU set to decide on an extension period to 31 Jan which at this stage hangs in the balance. The possibility of a No Deal Brexit on 31 Oct can therefore not be ruled out and that is bearish for the Pound but bulls won't be giving up any time soon.

    Meanwhile we've seen a few risk-off plays again with equities generally softer but seeing a little support this morning from the Asian lows.All ranging still overall as the jury remains out on the US Fed, Chinese trade talks et al.

    GBPUSD had a small rally around the first vote last night but since been down to 1.2842 in Asia helped by some GBPJPY risk-off supply. Already this morning we've seen a rally to 1.2891 before dipping back into 1.2855. Caution still needed both sides of the coin as the next stage in the Brexit fiasco plays out. EURGBP has also enjoyed good two-way business and holding 0.8575 (1.1660) yet again as per my tweet last night but struggling up around 0.8650 (GBPEUR support 1.1555) for the moment as EURUSD remains soft. GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading with yesterday's solid rally failing around at 141.00 and since retreating to lows of 139.10 amid the varying GBP/risk sentiment combo.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit uncertainty but always happy to buy back in the dips still. I repeat that this could still have a number of outcomes and remains pure guesswork/conspiracy theory at this time. Still a decent case for GBP longs in the dips if this tight range continues to hold.

    EURUSD has taken out the support at 1.1120-30 but still hanging in there amid the USD/risk uncertainty while

    USDJPY still remains tightly bound too amid the variable USD and risk sentiment but a tad softer to test 108.25-30 again.USDCHF has rallied further to post 0.9901 as EURUSD retreated with EURCHF still underpinned given the SNB being ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD has now posted fresh recent lows of 0.6834 helped by some AUDJPY risk off supply after being held up at 0.6850 by those large expiries yesterday.USDCAD remains on the back foot at 1.3095 with the C$ finding some Trudeau re-election relief still but tightly bound again.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    As for Southend's dismal display last night in losing 7-1 and having two players sent off I'd rather move on please but at least we have a new manager with a track record of one previous club and relegation avoided to bring to the table!

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.10 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2875

    EURGBP 0.8632

    EURUSD 1.1123

    GBPEUR 1.1580

    GBPAUD 1.8826

    GBPCAD 1.6865

    GBPJPY 139.60

    GBPZAR 18.8442

    GBPHKD 9.9820

    USDJPY 108.37

    USDZAR 14.6620

    EURJPY 120.54

    EURCHF 1.1007

    EURHKD 8.6200

    AUDUSD 0.6841

    USDCAD 1.3095

    USDCHF 0.9896

    Read more...

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  • Softer risk sentiment and the Pound retreats amid the Brexit noise

    UK PM Johnson will today try and get his Withdrawal Agreement through and then a 3-day legislation period with a view to still leaving on the 31 Oct but there's a number of amendments to be voted on later today from 18.00 GMT that can still thwart his plans and look likely to at this stage. Meanwhile Tusk will ask EU leaders to decide on granting any further extension.For a decent summary on what happens next in the sorry Brexit saga try this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50133958

    US treasury yields are dropping again this morning and that's inspiring a few risk-off plays but its all ranging still overall as the jury remains out on the US Fed, Chinese trade talks et al.

    GBPUSD still continues to provide good two-way pips regardless of your trading bias but yesterday's hold of 1.3020-30 as per my tweet proved a good one for rally sellers but caution still needed both sides of the coin. EURGBP has also enjoyed good two-way business and holding 0.8575 (1.1660) again but remains a little soft as EURUSD retreats too. GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading with yesterday's solid rally stopping at 141.35 and since retreating to lows of 140.26 as I type amid the varying GBP/risk sentiment combo.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit uncertainty but always happy to buy back in the dips still. I repeat that this could still have a number of outcomes and remains pure guesswork/conspiracy theory at this time. Equal case for GBP longs still as I've been highlighting for a number of days now.

    EURUSD failed into 1.1180 with yesterday's large option interest into 1.1200 providing a decent cap and now testing support around 1.1130.USDJPY still remains tightly bound too amid the variable USD and risk sentiment.

    USDCHF has found support at 0.9850 as EURUSD retreats with EURCHF still underpinned given the SNB being ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD failed above 0.6880 and now posted fresh recent lows of 0.6861 but support at 0.6850 where we have large option expiries today, while USDCAD has broken down further to post 1.3072 and looking a little soft as C$ feels a little love from Trudeau being returned as PM.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries that you might need some further help with.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.45 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2947

    EURGBP 0.8605

    EURUSD 1.1141

    GBPEUR 1.1617

    GBPAUD 1.8856

    GBPCAD 1.6943

    GBPJPY 140.47

    GBPZAR 19.0173

    GBPHKD 10.0378

    USDJPY 108.52

    USDZAR 14.6946

    EURJPY 120.90

    EURCHF 1.1010

    EURHKD 8.6406

    AUDUSD 0.6864

    USDCAD 1.3090

    USDCHF 0.9883

    Read more...

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  • All ranging still but Pound underpinned as another week begins

    Further to my Brexit vote update last night we've duly been ranging across the board in FX pairs, not just GBP.

    The US Dollar has a generally softer bias as do commodities and risk, to a lesser extent, but we're still going nowhere in a hurry as the uncertain global backdrop continues. All the more reason to ignore the noise, identify ranges and pick your entry/exit levels without being too greedy. Something I always preach and a key lesson which I help further with in my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions.

    As for what happens next in the sorry Brexit saga the Beeb has a good summary here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

    GBPUSD still continues to provide good two-way pips regardless of your trading bias but finding buyers again as European trading gets underway. Some profit taken now on re-sells in Asia above 1.2920 but caution still needed both sides of the coin. A few offers at 1.2980-85 now history as we look to test the big 1.3000 again. Expect stops through there if we break convincingly to test the next layer of sell interest at 1.3020-30.EURGBP has also enjoyed two-way business once again and remains 0.8575-0.8675 for the moment. GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading but still underpinned amid the varying GBP/risk sentiment combo and rallying again as I type.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit uncertainty but always happy to buy back in the dips still. I repeat that this could still have a number of outcomes and remains pure guesswork/conspiracy theory at this time. Equal case for GBP longs still as I've been highlighting for a number of days now.

    EURUSD remains underpinned helped some risk-on EURJPY demand and inherent EURCHF support to temper the renewed EURGBP supply and we've now posted fresh highs in this rally of 1.1173.USDJPY still remains tightly bound too amid the variable USD and risk sentiment but underpinned again after holding 108.30.USDCHF continues to slide as EURUSD rallies but still finding some dip demand with EURCHF underpinned.

    AUDUSD is still enjoying the general USD supply and some AUDJPY demand and now posted fresh recent highs of 0.6877.USDCAD has broken down further to test 1.3120 helped by the general USD selling and some CADJPY demand.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries that you might need some further help with.

    Congrats to the Shrimpers for getting an away point on Friday night although it should have been 3 but bigger congrats to the English and Welsh rugby union boys who performed magnificently to reach the WC semi finals. Bring on the All Blacks!!

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.24 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2926

    EURGBP 0.8632

    EURUSD 1.1160

    GBPEUR 1.1581

    GBPAUD 1.8824

    GBPCAD 1.6969

    GBPJPY 140.27

    GBPZAR 19.1817

    GBPHKD 10.0246

    USDJPY 108.53

    USDZAR 14.7654

    EURJPY 121.11

    EURCHF 1.0992

    EURHKD 8.6554

    AUDUSD 0.6865

    USDCAD 1.3130

    USDCHF 0.9852

    Read more...

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  • Can kicking the order of the day as Brexit debacle continues

    Yesterday's much hyped UK parliament Brexit showdown took another twist as the Letwin amendment prevailed making any confirmation of Johnson's deal postponed until all the legislation is examined, amendments made and then voted on. A delay therefore is sought as per the Benn Act and that has been requested through gritted teeth by the PM .

    As I said on Friday is a Brexit extension GBP positive anyhow? Well that depends on where it all leads to. At the moment we have a soft Brexit which is GBP positive in theory as far as the algos are concerned. Could we still leave with no deal? Will Brexit ever happen? No Brexit is GBP positive too but the political fall out from that is certainly not.

    The Sunday Times has reported that the EU could grant a delay of unknown time but possibly June 2020 and beyond which frankly isn't surprising given they don't want the UK to leave anyhow. Johnson for all his 31 October foot stamping is at heart a Remainer (he only changed sides last minute to enhance his obsessive political aspirations) so he'll be hoping that his game of smoke n mirrors, bluff n bluster runs longer anyhow and at worst case scenario he gets his ultra-soft Brexit deal through albeit in some diluted form.

    We also still have the scenarios of a no-confidence vote, a General Election, Second Referendum all very much in the mix still. The picture is sadly further muddied by the Labour Party being unable to make its mind up on exactly what it wants, and perhaps too scared to call a General Election. The Irish hard border issue continues to be a major factor too of course.

    The expected gap in Pound pairs on the Asian opening has understandably not happened given the can kicking but GBP does appear underpinned by the reduced No Deal odds but caution is still very much advised given the still variable outcomes.

    I would expect GBPUSD to continue to provide good two-way pips but no great break-outs up or down until we learn a little more over the next few days. I will repeat that patience is always a virtue when it comes to picking your entry levels, a far more important consideration than where you might take any potential profit.

    We are still in the realms of conjecture/second guessing/news bombs/rumours et al during Asia and early Europe but we should see some sell interest at 1.2980-85 and the big 1.3000 but should that break then we can expect some stop loss orders triggered which could see a quick ride to 1.3030-50. I would expect demand to be building now at 1.2920-25, 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.2850, 1.2830 and 1.2800.

    EURGBP is also still presenting 2-way opportunity in the broad 0.8575-0.8675 range for the moment (GBPEUR 1.1525-1.1660) so pick your execution levels accordingly.

    GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way business with Friday's retreat hold around 139.50 from 140.40 now capped at 140.80. The pair remains vulnerable on both sides on Brexit and general risk sentiment variables.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries that you might need some further help with.

    Update you more fully in the morning but in the meantime remember, as always, let's be careful out there.....

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 21.37 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2937

    EURGBP 0.8617

    EURUSD 1.1161

    GBPEUR 1.1589

    GBPAUD 1.8887

    GBPCAD 1.6987

    GBPJPY 140.24

    GBPZAR 19.0707

    GBPHKD 10.0301

    USDJPY 108.41

    USDZAR 14.7486

    EURJPY 120.93

    EURCHF 1.0981

    EURHKD 8.6548

    AUDUSD 0.6845

    USDCAD 1.3134

    USDCHF 0.9846

    Read more...

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  • Another roller coaster time for the Pound as EU and UK agree new Brexit deal

    It's been another up and down and up 24 hours for the Pound as the Brexit shambles unveils further with the EU and UK agreeing another deal in principle but with the DUP and opposition parties casting doubts.More headlines a-plenty to come across the airwaves today, then tomorrow sees the special sitting of Parliament but GBP looks underpinned still for the moment with various outcomes still tending toward the bullish as far as the algos are concerned.

    Tomorrow's special sitting of Parliament is key now and whether or not Johnson can garner enough support (320 votes needed) which seems unlikely atm but 24 hours is a long time in politics. We have to see whether the Benn Act resolution of requiring him to seek an extension if he fails is enforced. Juncker has said no further extensions but it's not just down to him.

    In any case is an extension GBP positive ? Well that depends on where it all leads to. At the moment we have a soft Brexit which is GBP positive in theory as far as the algos are concerned. Will the EU even contemplate another deal anyway? Could we still leave with no deal? Will Brexit ever happen? No Brexit is GBP positive too but the political fall out from that is certainly not.

    Talking of domestic politics we also have the scenarios of a no-confidence vote, a General Election, Second Referendum all potentially in the mix still, but not necessarily confirmed tomorrow. The picture is sadly further muddied by the Labour Party being unable to make its mind up on exactly what it wants, and perhaps too scared to call a General Election.

    Whatever the outcome, expected from 13.30 GMT, and the general fall-out/headlines following over the week-end we can be assured of a gap in Pound pairs on the Asian opening so caution is still very much advised if you are thinking of running positions into the weekend. Not a play I would recommend, and certainly not in any great size, (there will be plenty enough opportunity following) and to that end we can reasonably expect some position squaring from both the interbank and retail markets before today is done.

    I hope to be able to find time on Sunday to email you with a few thoughts to the Parliamentary outcome/s ahead of the Asian opening.

    Yesterday's GBPUSD rally to 1.2990 was a good opportunity to sell again and should continue to be if we get back up there which we can't rule out given the current uncertainty/volatility. Similarly we've been back down to 1.2760 since and back up to 1.2910 this morning. I repeat that patience will always be a virtue when it comes to picking your execution levels.EURGBP has also enjoyed the return trip once again and presenting 2-way pips but found a base at 0.8575 (GBPEUR cap 1.1661) before rallying as quickly to test 0.8700 (1.1500). GBPJPY continues to see good two-way business with a strong rally on the Brexit deal announcement before failing at 141.50 and falling back to 138.66 but still underpinned and and now back above 140.00.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall but always happy to buy back in the dips still.Yes the current demand has to be respected as the madness plays out but I repeat that this could still have a number of outcomes and remains pure guesswork/conspiracy theory. Equal case for GBP longs still despite the sharp rally in the past week but risk reward fades the higher we go.

    EURUSD is still underpinned helped by some risk-on EURJPY demand and inherent EURCHF support amid the EURGBP supply/demand ride and we've now cleared 1.1100 before failing at 1.1140. USDJPY still remains tightly bound between 108.50-109.00 amid the variable USD and risk sentiment.USDCHF has continued its retreat to post 0.9865 but continues to find dip demand albeit tempered by EURUSD continuing to progress higher too with EURCHF steady.

    AUDUSD found support from some better China trade deal vibes and AUDJPY demand cleared out the 0.6800 offers triggering stops and now posted fresh recent highs of 0.6843.USDCAD has finally fallen through 1.3180 to post fresh recent lows of 1.3131 helped by some CADJPY demand, softer USD and firmer oil prices.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries that you might need some further help with.

    Tonight the currently very soggy and manager-less Shrimpers of Southend travel to Tranmere and we'll keep hoping for a miracle. This week-end England's rugby union boys take on the Wallabies, Ireland v All Blacks and Wales v France in the WC Quarter-Finals. Bring it on!!

    Have a good day/weekend out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.05 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2865

    EURGBP 0.8639

    EURUSD 1.1117

    GBPEUR 1.1572

    GBPAUD 1.8840

    GBPCAD 1.6905

    GBPJPY 139.70

    USDJPY 108.58

    EURJPY 120.74

    EURCHF 1.0991

    AUDUSD 0.6828

    USDCAD 1.3140

    USDCHF 0.9886

    Read more...

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